Bond Market Signals More Trouble to Come

Sep 04, 2022 | What is the Bond Market Telling Us About the Market?

Bond Market Faces Biggest Decline in Decades

Stocks were once again trading down, mounting into three straight weekly losses for Wall Street. Traders were under heavy pressure on Friday, as Treasury bond yields dropped lower and the August jobs report showed solid gains in hiring and easing wage pressures. 

Job Market Stays Hot

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released the August totals for job growth. 315,000 new jobs were created in August, while unemployment ticked slightly higher than its post-pandemic low to 3.7%. Additionally, the average hourly earnings rate also moved higher, now up nearly 5.5% than this time a year ago. Wages jumped 0.3% for the month of August. 

While slowing wage increases may be seen as positive news for Wall Street, this may be temporary good news. The Labor Department noted total vacancies took a big jump higher in July. Total vacancies were just over 11 million in July, adding to concerns that faster than expected wage increases may continue to be needed. Wage increases have been necessary as of late, to help bring more Americans back to the workforce. 

Yields Drop

Treasury yields also dipped lower thanks to increasing pressure caused by wage gains. Add in a slight uptick in unemployment, and we get an environment ripe for additional rate hikes from the Fed. Odds are going up that the Fed will apply another large rate hike by Sept 21st. This may suggest more downside potential for bond prices. The Treasury market has lost over 10% in 2022, putting it on pace for its deepest annual loss and first back-to-back yearly declines since the 1970s. We saw stocks begin to rally in the summer months of June and July, as recession fears increased the chances of rate cuts next year. 

Meanwhile, Chairman Powell once again emphasized that he’s solely focused on bringing down inflation. Currency, Two-year Treasury yields hit 3.55%, the highest since 2007. 

What We’re Watching

With a holiday-shortened trading week due up, we have several key economic reports due out this week. Each will provide key information about the economy, and the current state of the stock market. 

We’ve got the Consumer Price Index due up in the next week. Additionally, we’ll be getting several key data points regarding housing. As we’ve reported in the past, homebuyer sentiment has been hitting all-time lows, and this week we’ll get the latest regarding total mortgage applications as of late. We’ll also be reviewing the household net income report, which will highlight how much consumers are spending and saving in their homes. 

What it Means: Inflation has been the biggest driver of market sentiment in 2022. As inflation moves higher, the Fed has continuously tightened its fiscal policy. This merry-go-round has hammered stocks, with the S&P 500 down 17% from its all-time highs. While we saw a mini-rally forming for stocks over the summer, equities are once again under pressure.

After the latest report regarding job growth and unemployment, our sentiment hasn’t changed. As bonds continue to drop and the chances of another significant rate hike continue to rise, we stress caution when looking for trades this week. 

US Chip Ban

The US government recently levied new restrictions against Nvidia, the premier chipmaker and semiconductor manufacturer. These new laws will limit Nvidia’s ability to sell artificial intelligence chips to Chinese customers. Nvidia has a massive market share and its chips are used in a variety of tools and products. These restrictions aim to deal a significant blow to China, and its ability to develop cutting-edge technologies. 

This week, Nvidia disclosed they are no longer allowed to sell certain high-end microchips to China without specific approvals, provided by Washington DC. Some of these chips focus specifically on autonomous driving and voice recognition software. 

Nvidia currently holds a 95% target share, with AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) taking up the #2 spot. AMD has also received similar restrictions from Washington. Their restrictions also focus on self-driving cars but also include additional cloud services as well. 

This comes at a time when Washington has continuously looked to increase sanctions on exports made to China. This has forced global chipmakers to effectively choose between the US and China. The new sanctions look to apply another chokepoint to China and its semiconductor capabilities. 

What it Means: In a move that sounds like we’ve re-entered the Cold War, the US is now actively taking steps to slow down China’s technological advancements. The type of semiconductors created by AMD and Nvidia produce some of the most cutting-edge technology on earth. This comes as the US government continues to increase sanctions against exporting goods to China. 

Weekly Swing Trades

Stock 2

December 18, 2022

Entry Price:

74.20

Stop Price:

72.65

Target Price:

77.20

Time Frame:

3 Week Hold

Caught a key support level last week. Monitor your 5 & 9 day moving average to ensure we don't lose momentum for this swing trade. Full info for our premium members.

Stock 1

December 18, 2022

Entry Price:

118.09

Stop Price:

114.24

Target Price:

125.08

Time Frame:

4 Week Hold

Classic moving average play here, looking for support off the 50 day MA. Closing last week, there was a slight uptick. If momentum holds, should make for a nice swing trade. Full info for our premium members.

Crypto.com Halts 5-Year Deal

Regulatory concerns in Europe have caused crypto.com to back out of a five-year sponsorship deal worth nearly $500 million with the UEFA Champions League, Europe’s premier soccer league. Crypto.com scrapped the deal over regulatory concerns in the UK, France, and Italy. Many of the new regulations have been put in place in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. We’ve also seen new legal issues. We’ve seen a rise in crypto advertising throughout sports, as the digital currency gains more mainstream acceptance. 

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Market Performance- Week of 12.18.2022

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Weekly Watchlists

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Weekly Review

Market Performance- Week of 12.18.2022

Recent Winners

BLDR (Builders Firstsource)

BLDR (Builders Firstsource)

Entry Price:

62.30

December 18, 2022

Price at High:

70.00

Return for Members:

11.00%

Timeline:

3 Week Hold

Simple moving average play here. Anticipating a 3-4 week swing trade as momentum has been growing for a move up.

EVI (EVI Industries)

EVI (EVI Industries)

Entry Price:

18.11

December 11, 2022

Price at High:

26.92

Return for Members:

48.64%

Timeline:

3 Week Hold

We're tracking EVI on its 4-hour chart, specifically looking at the 50MA as a level of support. If we can bounce, there is enough momentum for a quick swing trade.

FMC (FMC Corp.)

FMC (FMC Corp.)

Entry Price:

128.14

December 4, 2022

Price at High:

134.38

Return for Members:

4.90%

Timeline:

1 Week Hold

FMC has been on a bull run over the last month. As Swing Traders, we'll look to take advantage of the momentum and get in for a quick trade. Wait for a brief pull-back before entering.

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