Elon Musk Hits SNL

May 09, 2021 | How to Swing Trade Job Reports and other economic news

Weekly Newsletter - Week of 5.9.2021

Lackluster Jobs Report 

The market was stunned by a very underwhelming April jobs report. With more Americans getting vaccinated and going back to work (coupled with all the stimulus that's been pumped into the economy) the entire market was prepared for another surge in job hiring. Unfortunately, that did not happen. In April, we added 266,000 new jobs- this was much lower than the 770,000 new jobs added in March and the expected number of 1,000,000. In the current low rate environment, the miss did turn out to be a double-sided coin. The silver lining is that the market was concerned another strong jobs report might force intervention from Powell and the Fed. But thanks to underwhelming numbers regarding economic job growth, we ended on a positive note as most major indexes closed higher on Friday. 

Help Wanted 

Now the market is shining a spotlight on the growing concern over labor supply and demand. Through unemployment checks, swayed incentives, and a lack of high paying positions, the country is having a hard time getting people to come back to work. You may have noticed a huge decrease in drivers on platforms like Uber and Lyft. Both companies have launched new campaigns in order to bring drivers back to work- these campaigns are expected to cost over $250M. In Atlantic City, several hotels and casinos held joint jobs fair to try and fill their 1,100 available positions- the entire job fair attracted 20 people looking for work. The food industry is also having a difficult time. Some restaurants have started offering signing bonuses as incentives. Mega-conglomerates, like McDonald’s, have even discussed paying people just to show up for interviews. With spiking demand for everyday activities, businesses are being forced to come up with creative incentives to bring people back to work. Until labor incentives change this will be a problem for the foreseeable future. 

Weekly Swing Trades

PNRG (Prime Energy)

October 2, 2022

Entry Price:

80.62

Stop Price:

76.85

Target Price:

88.04

Time Frame:

1 Week Hold

Expecting a short-term bump after a recent OPEC+ announcement regarding the a supply constraint to oil. The constraint would result in ~1M less barrels of oil per day, which should cause a price jump. Low RSI and bouncing off our 250 day moving average, both hallmarks of a good swing trade.

DV (Doubleverify)

October 2, 2022

Entry Price:

27.75

Stop Price:

26.75

Target Price:

29.00

Time Frame:

3 Week Hold

Using our moving averages heavily on this swing trade, look for continued strength as we try to notch out a 6-8% gain. Specifically, we are taking advantage of of a recent cross over in the 50 day moving average. Last week closed down, so wait for confirmation of a reversal.

This Week in Cryptocurrency 

Another wild week in the crypto space. Bitcoin shares have traded mostly sideways during April and they’re down 3% for the month. Meanwhile, Ethereum (the #2 cryptocurrency by market-cap) continues to set new highs on incredible momentum- ETH jumped nearly 80% in April alone. 

What’s Fueling the Crypto Surge? 

Simply put, network effect. As celebrities, tech companies, and even large banks start to dive into the crypto space, more and more people are learning about the potential benefits to a decentralized system. And let’s face it, when you see the type of returns the market has had recently it’s hard not to want to get involved- just ask Goldman Sachs (GS announced a crypto currency trading desk this week). 

Elon Musk & DogeCoin 

Elon Musk, business magnet and tech entrepreneur, started promoting DogeCoin as a fun way to hype the crypto market. Given his immense influence, DogeCoin started seeing huge price appreciation. For context, the price of DogeCoin went from less than .01 cents to nearly 75 cents during this time. But what is DogeCoin? According to Coinbase (the largest crypto trading platform), DogeCoin was started as a joke and has no use case or any other fundamental value associated with it. But as FOMO increased, retail investors piled on and on until we got to SNL. Yes, Saturday Night Live. 

The proclaimed “Doge-Father” (Elon Musk), hosted SNL yesterday. DogeCoin saw huge pre-anticipatory run ups before his appearance as investors were hoping for him to pump the price to new highs. Unfortunately, the expected pump was lackluster at best and Doge dropped nearly 40% since. This is a good reminder that cryptocurrency, and DogeCoin, are incredibly volatile investments and should be taken with an extreme understanding of the risk involved. 

Upcoming Economic Reports

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Weekly Watchlists

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Weekly Review

Market Performance- Week of 09.25.2022

Recent Winners

SBUX (Starbucks)

SBUX (Starbucks)

Entry Price:

85.00

September 11, 2022

Price at High:

89.90

Return for Members:

5.76%

Timeline:

2 Month Hold

Strong momentum over the last few weeks. Watch for a mean reversion, but if moving averages stay consistent look for an early play to open the week.

PNRG (Prime Energy Resources)

PNRG (Prime Energy Resources)

Entry Price:

83.20

September 4, 2022

Price at High:

100.00

Return for Members:

20.19%

Timeline:

3 Week Hold

PNRG had a drawdown to historical levels of support (around the 100 day moving average). Looking to make an entry in the coming days as we also have macro tailwinds with the energy crisis in Europe.

PYPL (Paypal)

PYPL (Paypal)

Entry Price:

87.00

August 28, 2022

Price at High:

103.00

Return for Members:

18.39%

Timeline:

4 Week Hold

Playing off the dip in June, we're starting to see momentum as the 50MA is crossing over the long-term averages. Look to for momentum to continue and an early entry on Monday.

Recent Watchlist Winners

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