Global Tensions Weigh on Market

Oct 09, 2022 | Tensions in Russia Continues to Rise as Swing Traders play the Volatility

Will Russia Go Nuclear? 

This week President Biden issued a stern, but chilling warning when he announced that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is as high as it’s been since the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s. Biden made this declaration when discussing the latest in the ongoing Russia and Ukraine war. 

According to Biden and other foreign policy leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been making increasingly dangerous decisions in response to the ongoing war.

This comes as the Russian military continues to see losses against Ukrainian forces.

Putin Under Pressure

As of late, Putin has been receiving heavy criticism for his handling of the war with Ukraine. Not just from other nations globally, but criticisms are mounting from the Russian people as well.

As Putin becomes increasingly more determined to show immediate results, President Biden warned the American people should take the latest threats seriously.

He noted the Russian leader was ‘not joking’ about potentially using nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons. While not explicitly stating Russia would go nuclear… the Russian leader did recently declare “Russia is willing to use all the means at its disposal… and this is not a bluff”.

Putin went on to declare, “I want to remind you that our country has various means of destruction..” 

Russian Heat

Recently, it’s been estimated that Russia has approximately 4,500 active nuclear warheads within its possession. Many of these warheads are considered ‘strategic nuclear weapons’ used to attack from long distances.

While the remaining have been identified as ‘tactical nuclear weapons or ones most likely to get deployed by Russia during the war. 

While Biden may be predicting the world's end, many global defense officials do not consider this an imminent ‘code-red’ moment.

Stating “We do not presently see any indicators about the imminent use of nuclear weapons. While others have argued, Putin’s threat of “Not being a bluff” was used to scare off other countries from supporting Ukraine. 

The U.S. and allied intelligence agencies have been stepping up measures to monitor Russia’s military moves and communications that would indicate the use of nuclear weapons. 

It is estimated that nearly 90% of all nuclear warheads are owned by either Russia or the United States. Meanwhile, other countries are either buying or developing their own new warheads to keep up with Russia and the U.S. 

What it Means: Russia has continued its attacks on Ukraine for the last several months. And even if you haven't been directly affected, the growing unrest in Europe has had far-reaching impacts throughout the stock market.

This week, President Biden issued a dire warning for the American people, while sending a reminder that war is ongoing. We’ve already seen numerous sanctions levied against Russia, a vital player in the global distribution supply chain.

With the latest warning from Biden, there’s no reason to think the Russian sanctions will slow down anytime soon.  

Musk vs Twitter, The Battle Continues 

As we’ve discussed in the past, there’s been no shortage of drama between Elon Musk and Twitter over the last few months.

Musk originally made headlines by announcing his intention to acquire the social media platform. Since then, Musk has been working hard to get out of the deal, perhaps showing some early buyer's remorse.

This week, the courts put a hold on the acquisition, until at least October 28th. This was done to allow Musk more time to get the rest of the funding needed to complete the $44 billion purchase.

Many believe Musk called for this time to explore new avenues for killing off the deal.

Despite reports of different financiers abandoning ship during the attempted takeover, the reality is there are no real outs for Musk anymore.

Many see this new delay as simply postponing the inevitable. Conventional wisdom says Musk will be the new CEO and owner of Twitter by Halloween.  

Twitter continues to hurl accusations at Musk, claiming he is deliberately stalling on completing the deal. 

What it Means:  Elon Musk shocked the world when he proclaimed his desire to acquire Twitter. Many investors were extremely bullish on the idea, showing an eagerness to learn more about Musk’s plans for Twitter. 

Since then, he’s ranted and raved over theories about the number of bots Twitter puts on the platform. He’s used this as his rationale for attempting to kill the deal. Despite months of litigation, all signs are pointing to Musk being forced to complete his planned acquisition of Twitter, by the end of the month 

Weekly Swing Trades

Stock 2

December 18, 2022

Entry Price:

74.20

Stop Price:

72.65

Target Price:

77.20

Time Frame:

3 Week Hold

Caught a key support level last week. Monitor your 5 & 9 day moving average to ensure we don't lose momentum for this swing trade. Full info for our premium members.

Stock 1

December 18, 2022

Entry Price:

118.09

Stop Price:

114.24

Target Price:

125.08

Time Frame:

4 Week Hold

Classic moving average play here, looking for support off the 50 day MA. Closing last week, there was a slight uptick. If momentum holds, should make for a nice swing trade. Full info for our premium members.

EU's New Crypto Bans on Russia 

This week the EU levied additional sanctions against Russia. Going forward, all crypto payments from Russians to European wallet providers will now be considered illegal.

The European Union has confirmed a sweeping ban on providing crypto services to Russians. New regulations will continue to rollout, as the war rages on.

This is the latest attempt from the EU to cut-off Russia, while the nation struggles to look for aid during war times. 

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Market Performance- Week of 12.18.2022

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Weekly Watchlists

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Weekly Review

Market Performance- Week of 12.18.2022

Recent Winners

BLDR (Builders Firstsource)

BLDR (Builders Firstsource)

Entry Price:

62.30

December 18, 2022

Price at High:

70.00

Return for Members:

11.00%

Timeline:

3 Week Hold

Simple moving average play here. Anticipating a 3-4 week swing trade as momentum has been growing for a move up.

EVI (EVI Industries)

EVI (EVI Industries)

Entry Price:

18.11

December 11, 2022

Price at High:

26.92

Return for Members:

48.64%

Timeline:

3 Week Hold

We're tracking EVI on its 4-hour chart, specifically looking at the 50MA as a level of support. If we can bounce, there is enough momentum for a quick swing trade.

FMC (FMC Corp.)

FMC (FMC Corp.)

Entry Price:

128.14

December 4, 2022

Price at High:

134.38

Return for Members:

4.90%

Timeline:

1 Week Hold

FMC has been on a bull run over the last month. As Swing Traders, we'll look to take advantage of the momentum and get in for a quick trade. Wait for a brief pull-back before entering.

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